ONE WINNER- ONE LOSER

There were two big races in the past twenty fours on both sides of the world. Here it was the Melbourne Cup and on the other side of the globe it was the 2004 presidential election in the United States.

Here, Makybe Diva showed that you can make it two in a row. And I’m happy, like many of you, because I backed her.

In the United States of course there’s a presidential election and, it seems, President George W. Bush, may NOT make it two in a row.

It looks like the next president of the United States could be Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. George Bush looks like he may go into the history books the same way as his father: A one-term president.

If so -- I got it wrong. Prime Minister Howard certainly will have got it wrong too with a reckless, and undiplomatic, endorsement of his mate George Bush last week.

Frankly, I thought that the attempted intervention in the US election by Osama Bin Laden would help George Bush. The war on terrorism was Bush’s major issue. His strength as a leader in the war in Iraq seemed to be in his favour.

But, a bit like in the Australian federal election, the people in the US – especially in the mid-western states – echoed the words of Bill Clinton: It’s the economy, stupid.

A big jobless rate, low minimum pay, and the people (it seems) may have turned against the so-called Big Money party of George.

If true, the ramifications, internationally, are awesome. Including here in Australia.

Bin Laden and other Islamic extremists will claim some credit for the demise of the Bush presidency. Opponents of the war in Iraq – both here and abroad – will see the vote as a vote against the war. Even though President-elect Kerry can’t, and won’t, “do a Latham” and promise to bring the troops home for Christmas.

President Bush campaigned hard on Iraq. He was the tough leader, the best leader, the strongest leader. He wanted four more years as sheriff. He tried to paint Kerry – a decorated Vietnam Veteran in a war that Bush avoided – as a lightweight.

In the days before the election another nine US marines died in Iraq. More than 1000 American soldiers have died there. The war has cost the American economy around 200 billion dollars. Money that the Democrats feel could have been better spent at home.

And then there was always the lurking feeling, obviously among Democrats, that George Bush “stole” the election in 2000. Especially in Florida. It has encouraged the biggest voluntary voter turnout since John Kennedy just beat Vice President Richard Nixon in 1960. And some people claim that Kennedy’s father Joe bought that election anyway.

So today: Saddam Hussein has gone. George Bush may have gone. It is now 698 days since John Kerry launched his campaign for the White House.

A short time ago President Bush let the TV cameras into the White House where he is monitoring the poll. Obviously, he would hope to gee-up the Republican vote in the West and California.

In the early hours – after the polls closed in the East – it seemed a Kerry win was clearly on the cards. In the past couple of hours the pendulum has swung towards President Bush. Is it enough? Too close to call.

Wednesday, November 3, 2004

©Copyright Derryn Hinch 2004