GEORGE W (FOR WIN) BUSH

Who would have thunk it? I said on Day One of the Australian federal election that John Howard would be elected to a fourth term and predicted the quinella that George Bush would be re-elected to a second term.

But nobody predicted that the Bush victory would be so strong. He can now rightly say that he has a mandate: in Iraq, in Afghanistan and in the war on terror.

Think of this: George W. Bush has racked up the biggest popular vote in presidential history. And by doing that he can silence the critics who said he “stole” the 2000 election. He even won Florida – the state which the Supreme Court gave him last time around.

And think of this: This week Bush won more than 50 per cent of the popular vote. That’s something that the charismatic Bill Clinton could not do in either of his two terms.

To put this election into historical perspective. Before yesterday only three Republican presidents had been re-elected in 100 years. Bush’s father couldn’t do it. The only Republicans to stand again and win were Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Now they are joined by a man who just over years ago hadn’t even stood for office as Governor of Texas.

John Kerry now goes on the political scrap heap because he forgot the words of his predecessor, Bill Clinton. “It’s the economy, stupid”. In my opinion, his team made a fatal error by deciding they could take on the Commander in Chief because, after all, Kerry had been decorated as a war hero in Vietnam. Bush had ducked active service by joining the National Guard.

When it comes to fighting an incumbent president on who is the tougher and stronger leader you are punching above your weight.

President Bush campaigned hard on Iraq. He WAS the tough leader, the best leader, the strongest leader. He wanted four more years as sheriff. He painted Kerry as a lightweight. And the eleventh-hour appearance of Osama Bin Laden on television was a pertinent reminder to American voters that the wolf was still at the door.

Kerry should have let Bush wear his macho man uniform and gone after him more on the economy… on the issue of massive job losses especially in places like Ohio which he couldn’t even carry.

For Australia, and for John Howard, it is a good result. We need the US as an ally. The PM and the Prez have a genuine personal relationship. The

FTA now looks stronger. Howard would have had a prickly relationship with Kerry – the same way Mark Latham would have had an awkward relationship with Bush.

And the only foreign leader happier than John Howard today would have to be Tony Blair. He’ll go to the polls soon – and in Cup Week parlance – will try to score the trifecta for the Coalition of the Willing.

Thursday, November 4, 2004

©Copyright Derryn Hinch 2004