POLLS AND MORE POLLS

They say there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Well, you could also say there are polls and polls and polls. Especially in the middle of a federal election campaign.

In recent days we have seen a flurry of polls and conflicting headlines which could – if they choose carefully the ones they believe – bring solace and comfort to both Prime Minister Howard and Opposition Leader Latham.

For example, the Sydney Morning Herald’s Page One headline said: PM seizes lead for first time in campaign. And I saw another poll that claimed John Howard was raking in the support of women voters. The next day, the Herald’s stablemate’s front page said: “Latham winning Women Voters”.

“Women are swinging behind Labor Leader Mark Latham, attracted by Labor’s emphasis on health, education and social policy issues”.

And on the news today was the result of the latest Morgan poll which claimed if an election had been held on the weekend Latham would be in The Lodge.

As the card dealers used to say in poker “read’ em and weep”. They also used to say “ down and dirty” which is a nifty excuse to look at the developments on television over the past 48 hours.

The Libs have unleashed the first of their savagely (and predictable) TV commercials which focus on the only time novice Latham every really ran anything – when he was Mayor of Liverpool Council in New South Wales. That was more than a decade ago but the Liberals have harped, and will harp, on that issue: “If you can’t run a council—you can’t run a country”.

As I recalled earlier this month, at the start of the campaign, Bob Hawke, years ago struck a clever note during yet another Liberal Party leadership struggle, when he used that turmoil to repeatedly use the quote: “If you can’t run your party, you can’t run the country”.

Treasurer Peter Costello used his column in Murdoch papers to pose the question:

“Would Victorians vote for Joan Kirner as Prime Minister after what she did to the Victorian economy?" No way. After what Joan Kirner did to Victoria, no one would consider her for higher office.

Yet Mark Latham had a record every bit as bad when he was the mayor of the Liverpool council. He went on a spending binge that couldn’t be paid for. He left the council after being warned that his deficits were unsustainable.

“If you can’t run a council you can’t run a country.”

And that is the thrust of the Libs latest TV campaign.

Also on TV at the weekend Latham had a stoush with the Nine Network’s political guru. Laurie Oakes, on Sunday.

OAKES: You've promised an $11.7 billion tax and family policy. That's a huge amount. A huge investment. Yet you appear to have got zero political dividend from it. The polls show that you got no bounce at all. Someone said to me it's a souffle that didn't even rise once.

LATHAM: Well, you know, smart aleck commentary, Laurie, is no use to me, nor the polls.

OAKES: It's true, though, isn't it?

LATHAM: I'm advocating good policy...and you can roll out all the souffles and any other food you want to eat, but the substance for the Australian people is in the policy, and it's really good stuff."

Then there was the dummy spit when a journalist asked Latham if it was true that his son was on a waiting list for a pre-school attached to a private school.

Latham claimed again that his private life was his private life. But if private schools versus Government schools and their funding hit lists is a major Latham policy – and it is – then the question was a fair one. Not incidentally, the answer is YES.

Monday, September 20, 2004

©Copyright Derryn Hinch 2004