ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

Two words set the political scene in Canberra today. And they are “it’s over”. They are quoted on the front page of The Age from a senior Liberal politician. And he is referring to the relationship between Prime Minister Howard and his long-term deputy and Treasurer Peter Costello.

The newspaper headline actually says: “ Costello backers set deadline”. And the story claims that Costello will not stay on as Howard’s deputy or Treasurer beyond early next year. The classic dummy spit. Like he almost did on television in a press conference last year when Howard refused to budge.

It is self-indulgent rubbish. Nobody has a divine right to inherit the keys to The Lodge. Methinks Costello and his tiny army of supporters – who want to share the spoils of office – are starting to panic.

You may be the Melbourne Cup favourite but an outsider can always sneak up and deny you the trophy. And the longer the race the more chance of that happening.

As I said yesterday there were headlines screaming “Costello ready to fight for top job”. And I said: No he’s not. First of all, he doesn’t have the numbers. And he doesn’t have public support. And, his opponents say he doesn’t have the “bottle” as the politicians say. Or the “Ticker” as John Howard would say. As he said about Kim Beazley.

Remember, Peter Costello could have put his hand up and got the job as Opposition Leader after the John Hewson disaster when HE lost the “unlosable” election. Costello was a political powerhouse. He was party deputy but he didn’t stand. Talk about “no guts, no glory”. Instead they elected Alexander Downer. And it was a disaster.

Costello can have as many dinners with party powerbroker, Michael Kroger, as he likes, but the fact is he doesn’t have the numbers.

The Treasurer is dirty because John Howard won’t hand over the keys to The Lodge and won’t even give a date for a future handover.

What started all this is that Howard, in several newspaper interviews in Athens, virtually said: “I’m not going anywhere”.

He did boast – and some call it hubris – that he had beaten Kim Beazley twice at Federal elections and wanted to do it a third time. He wanted to go an election that if won would a Menzies-style fifth term.

But he also aimed his guns at the man who would be king. In a few days we will see Peter Costello hand down his tenth Budget. John Howard, in Athens, either churlishly, or mischievously, or calculatingly, pointed out that PMs also have Budget input and, if you counted his time as Malcolm Fraser’s Treasurer, then this was his 16th Budget.

As I said yesterday guns are being fired across the bows here. But they are pop guns. Peter Costello is between a rock and a hard place. He desperately wants the top job and he probably believes there was some sort of agreement for a smooth handover from Howard. Not as watertight as the Hawke-Keating Kirribilli Agreement. And remember Hawke reneged on that.

But what does Costello do? Challenge a man who has won four elections on the trot and to whom Liberal members in marginal seats are eternally grateful? Bide his time for four more years? Or give up the consuming ambition and go into a high-paying corporate life?

Methinks for now he will just preserve the status quo.


Wednesday, May 4, 2005

©Copyright Derryn Hinch 2005