AND THE WINNER IS…

So Kevin Rudd won the debate last night. That’s my opinion and the view of many commentators and the ubiquitous worm on Channel Nine.

Rudd won. But what did John Howard actually lose? Before the first words were even spoken in the head-to-head in the Great Hall at Parliament House in Canberra I saw a poll which showed The Debate would not change the vote of more than 90% of people polled.

The Worm showed a massive win for the Labor leader – 65% TO 29% -- and there were times when John Howard hardly got out of the red.  Sixty-five to twenty-nine is a helluva shellacking. But put things into perspective. When Howard last debated Kim Beazley The Worm called it 67-33 to Beazley. Howard went on to win the election. When Howard debated Mark Latham The Worm called it an identical 67-33 to Latham and Howard slaughtered him at the polls in one of the biggest routs in political history.

The SKY news poll which can be manipulated by people with busy dialling fingers initially called it 53-46 to Rudd but overnight that turned around to 50-48 in favour of the PM.

And the debate itself. Both men, to me, had their strong moments and weak moments and the format didn’t quite work. David Spears, the moderator from SKY seemed to be the main interrogator as well as traffic cop. The experienced panel of political journalists were almost superfluous. They only got to ask a couple of questions each and sadly too many of those were more like statements than questions.

I would have like to have seen some short, sharp, zingers to both men. And to often Howard and Rudd reminded me of that wily old warhorse who used to say ‘don’t answer the question they ask you… answer the question you wanted them to ask you’.

One journo, Chris Hartcher, did try to pin Rudd down when he obfuscated as to what a Labor Government would actually do to attack global warming and carbon footprints in say the next five years but he ducked it. In fact both men got bogged down on climate issues. And various versions of ‘it’s the economy, stupid’.

Rudd again pushed Howard over a ‘vote for Howard is a vote for Costello’ but Labor can’t go to hard on that one. The electorate didn’t know that Bob Hawke and Paul Keating had a secret agreement to pass the baton when they last voted for Hawke. And that only became public when Hawke decided he didn’t want to go. Sound familiar?

To me the only way last night’s talkfest could have influenced many voters was if one man had stumbled badly, got the stutters, lost his train of thought. But they’ve answered all these questions so many times they almost come out by rote.

What it did do – and this always works for the challenger – is that it gives him almost equal status. Although Rudd did refer to his opponent as  ‘Prime Minister’. That’s why incumbents try to avoid debates. Richard Nixon did not debate his Democrat opponent George McGovern once.

But then Nixon knew what debates could do. Against the boyish, handsome, John Kennedy, in 1960 Nixon had a heavy five o’clock shadow and looked decidedly shifty. He’d also banged his knee getting out of the car on the way to the TV studio and was in physical pain.

Many people believe that debate cost Nixon the White House. It didn’t get Kevin Rudd the keys to The Lodge  but it wouldn’t have stopped him packing.

Monday, October 22, 2007

©Copyright Derryn Hinch 2007