A Big Gamble

I want to talk about two P’s : Politics and Pokies. As the horse trading continues in Canberra it looks like we will have a result after the weekend. The Tasmanian Independent, Andrew Wilkie used poker machines and addicted gamblers as one of his main bargaining chips in exchange for supporting Julia Gillard. He said a Gillard government would be the ‘less unethical’. Great endorsement.
 
That means Julia Gillard is now on 74-- only two votes away from the magical 76.  That’s made up of 72 Labor, Adam Ant The Green, and Andrew Wilkie, the former Green.

That still leaves the Three Amigos who say they are going home this weekend to make up their minds. Well, Hinch’s Hunch as I tweeted last night after watching all three with David Speers on SKY’s Agenda:  the man to watch is Tony Windsor.

I believe Rob Oakeshott will go Labor as I have explained before. He had a Labor pollie in an Oakeshott T-shirt handing out How to Vote Cards. That’s 75.

Bob Katter, after all his bluster and Katterwauling will align with the Coalition. And so will the pseudo-National Tony Crook. That gives Abbott 74.

That leaves Tony Windsor.  He may go for the Coalition but that would tie it up at 75 a piece and for the sake of getting a government in place – for that’ stable and effective’ government they are talking about he could go Labor produces a Speaker and they govern with a one-seat majority 75-74.
And if were putting money on it that’s the call I’d make.

But speaking of betting. The pokies deal. There are now two politicians whose main  platform is restricting poker machine gambling.  Wilkie and Senator Nick Xenaphon.

Putting aside the issue as to why recreational gamblers should be penalised because of a few people with an addiction  (do you close down pubs because of alcoholics? ) look at the cost of the Gillard-Wilkie deal if it goes through.

We have had poker machines in Australia for more than 50 years. The states rely on gambling taxes for about $3 billion a year. A billion here in Victoria.

If the Feds try to eat into that, there’ll be screams of States rights, demands for compensation, and probable trips to the High Court.

Not to mention the businesses and clubs, large and small, who paid a lot of money recently for ten-year licences. They too could demand compensation.
Methinks Julia Gillard has promised to gamble a lot of your money just to buy one necessary vote.

Friday, September 3, 2010

© Copyright Derryn Hinch 2010